A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
